Sampdoria vs Ascoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sampdoria, 1 for Ascoli and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 64% versus Ascoli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 46% | Ascoli 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.12 xG and Ascoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / defence 0.980 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Sampdoria games / 10 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 37%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 40% | Ascoli 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Sampdoria 1.12 / Ascoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / def 0.980 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ascoli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Ascoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Ascoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Ascoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 31% chance of winning, Ascoli a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sampdoria and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Ascoli in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.15
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.37
1.24
Ascoli xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.24 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 1L across 11 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ascoli's season.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.55 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ascoli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Ascoli away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.50 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Ascoli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Ascoli runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Ascoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Ascoli 2-0 Sampdoria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ascoli tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 75%, Ascoli 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sampdoria) and 25% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 50%; Ascoli in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 25% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sampdoria's recent games and 25% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Ascoli tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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