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Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salernitana beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.05 xG and Reggiana 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Reggiana attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights