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Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Salernitana 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.15 xG and Palermo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 32% | Draw 31% | Palermo 36%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 53%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights