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Salernitana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salernitana beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.52 xG and Cosenza 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 47% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 24%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cosenza's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights