Salernitana 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Salernitana welcome Cosenza to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Salernitana are significantly better at Stadio Arechi than their overall form suggests.
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Salernitana) versus 0.90 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Salernitana register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Salernitana, 0 for Cosenza and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cosenza trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 54% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.52 xG and Cosenza 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.910 / defence 1.025 | Cosenza attack 0.841 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Salernitana games / 71 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 47% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 24%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Cosenza 4.17. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salernitana as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 47% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Salernitana 1.52 / Cosenza 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.910 / def 1.025 | Cosenza attack 0.841 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cosenza xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Cosenza kick off?
Salernitana vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Cosenza?
Salernitana 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Salernitana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Cosenza part of?
Salernitana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 47% chance of winning, Cosenza a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Salernitana and Cosenza in?
Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.39
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.02
Cosenza xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.02 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 10W 20D 41L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 17W 27D 27L from 71 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Cosenza are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.91 PPG from 35 outings (8W 8D 19L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 8W 13D 14L from 35 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.06 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 10W 20D 41L in their last 71 games (0.70 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 17W 27D 27L in their last 71 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.91 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Salernitana 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Cosenza?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 66%, Cosenza 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Salernitana) and 37% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 29% of games; Cosenza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Salernitana's games and 49% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Salernitana's recent games and 37% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Cosenza tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.52 xG and Cosenza 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 47% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 24%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.