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Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Modena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salernitana beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.18 xG and Modena 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Salernitana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Modena 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights