🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Salernitana cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salernitana beat Mantova 2-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.91 xG and Mantova 1.25 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mantova landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Mantova attack 1.05 / defence 1.46, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 52% | Draw 24% | Mantova 24%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 40%, Mantova 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Mantova's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salernitana 1.03 PPG, Mantova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salernitana win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights