Salernitana 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Brescia meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Salernitana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 58% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 60% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.19 xG and Brescia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.979 / defence 1.350 | Brescia attack 0.789 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.092. Data: 17 Salernitana games / 55 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 34% | Draw 33% | Brescia 33%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Brescia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 34% | Draw 33% | Brescia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Salernitana 1.19 / Brescia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.979 / def 1.350 | Brescia attack 0.789 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brescia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Brescia kick off?
Salernitana vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Brescia?
Salernitana 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Salernitana vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Brescia part of?
Salernitana vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 34% chance of winning, Brescia a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salernitana and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Brescia in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.98) and Brescia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.79x) against Salernitana's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
34%
2.95
33%
2.99
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.35
1.16
Brescia xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.16 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 6W 16D 33L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 16W 20D 19L from 55 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.68 PPG from 28 outings (4W 7D 17L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 7W 9D 12L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Brescia in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 6W 16D 33L in their last 55 games (0.62 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 20D 19L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.68 PPG; Brescia away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 68%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Salernitana) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 32% of games; Brescia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Salernitana's games and 57% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Salernitana's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Brescia tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Brescia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salernitana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 18, as Salernitana and Brescia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.19 xG and Brescia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.98 / defence 1.35 against Brescia attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 34% | Draw 33% | Brescia 33%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 60%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.