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Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Reggiana 0-4 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.01 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights