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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 6, as Reggiana and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.54 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Spezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 44% | Draw 33% | Spezia 24%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Spezia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights