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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pescara cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.36 xG and Pescara 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Pescara attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Pescara 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 0.94 PPG, Pescara 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights