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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, as Reggiana and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.95 xG and Palermo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 32% | Palermo 44%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights