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Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Reggiana 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Padova 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Padova outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Padova attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 42% | Draw 35% | Padova 23%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 53%, Padova 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Padova's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.33 PPG, Padova 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights