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Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Reggiana 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.05 xG and Modena 1.04 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Modena attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 33% | Draw 35% | Modena 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Modena's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights