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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Reggiana take on Modena.

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Match Analysis

Reggiana host Modena at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Reggiana — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Modena have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggiana 1.00 PPG, Modena 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 1, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Reggiana winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Reggiana in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Modena in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 46% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Modena 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.05 xG and Modena 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.864 / defence 1.129 | Modena attack 0.837 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.102. Data: 54 Reggiana games / 54 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Reggiana 33% | Draw 35% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 40% | Modena 60%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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