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Reggiana and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 22, as Reggiana and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 40% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.08 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights