Reggiana 2-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Reggiana welcome Juve Stabia to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 3W 5D 1L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggiana 0.90 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 39% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 33% | Juve Stabia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.05 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.788 / defence 1.131 | Juve Stabia attack 0.998 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Reggiana games / 18 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 40% | Juve Stabia 56%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Reggiana 1.05 / Juve Stabia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.788 / def 1.131 | Juve Stabia attack 0.998 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Juve Stabia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Reggiana 2 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia part of?
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 30% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reggiana and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Juve Stabia in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.79) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
30%
3.30
32%
3.08
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.24
1.19
Juve Stabia xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.19 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 6D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (3W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Juve Stabia away?
Juve Stabia's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.00 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Reggiana's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggiana
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 33%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Reggiana) and 56% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 33%; Reggiana have failed to score in 44% of games; Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Reggiana's recent matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Reggiana's recent games and 56% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Juve Stabia 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.05 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 37%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 33%, Juve Stabia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.