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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 4, as Reggiana and Catanzaro drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.25 xG and Catanzaro 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Catanzaro outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Catanzaro attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 39% | Draw 36% | Catanzaro 25%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 49%, Catanzaro 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.17 PPG, Catanzaro 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights