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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Carrarese 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.03 xG and Carrarese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Carrarese attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 45%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 49%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Carrarese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.04 PPG, Carrarese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights