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Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 21, as Reggiana and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.90 xG and Bari 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 36% | Bari 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 36%, Bari 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.22 PPG, Bari 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights