Pisa 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pisa welcome Sudtirol to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.70 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Sudtirol 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Sudtirol 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.52 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.282 / defence 1.003 | Sudtirol attack 0.932 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.032. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Pisa games / 22 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 50% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 24%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 4.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 50% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Pisa 1.52 / Sudtirol 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.282 / def 1.003 | Sudtirol attack 0.932 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Pisa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sudtirol xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sudtirol kick off?
Pisa vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Pisa 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Pisa vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sudtirol part of?
Pisa vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 50% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pisa and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Pisa and Sudtirol in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.75
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.49
0.96
Sudtirol xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pisa and 0.96 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 7W 10D 5L from 22 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 5L across 22 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.41 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 7W 10D 5L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sudtirol away?
Pisa's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.70 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Pisa or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Sudtirol 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pisa) and 30% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 40%; Pisa have failed to score in 30% of games; Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 30% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pisa's recent games and 30% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.52 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Sudtirol attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 50% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 24%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Sudtirol 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.41 PPG, Sudtirol 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.