Palermo 2-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palermo and Reggina meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Palermo, 1.70 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Palermo have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Reggina in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Palermo 0W, Reggina 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 41% versus Reggina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 36% | Reggina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.86 xG and Reggina 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.834 / defence 0.917 | Reggina attack 0.963 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.043. Data: 22 Palermo games / 60 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 34% | Reggina 35%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Reggina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Palermo's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 34% | Reggina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Palermo 0.86 / Reggina 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.834 / def 0.917 | Reggina attack 0.963 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Reggina (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Reggina xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Reggina kick off?
Palermo vs Reggina kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Reggina?
Palermo 2 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Palermo vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Reggina part of?
Palermo vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 31% chance of winning, Reggina a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Palermo and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Palermo and Reggina in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Reggina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.83x the league average against Reggina's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.96x) against Palermo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
31%
3.21
34%
2.94
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.78
0.92
Reggina xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.6 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Palermo and 0.92 for Reggina, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 8W 7D 7L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina's form line: 12W 3D 7L from 22 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Palermo against 1.77 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.50 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Reggina in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Reggina in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Reggina have gone 12W 3D 7L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.64 PPG; Reggina away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Palermo or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Reggina in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Palermo 2-1 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Palermo) and 36% (Reggina) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Palermo and 27% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Reggina in 36%; Palermo have failed to score in 36% of games; Reggina in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Palermo's recent matches and 36% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Palermo's recent games and 27% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Reggina tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Reggina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Reggina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Reggina 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.86 xG and Reggina 0.92 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Reggina attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 31% | Draw 34% | Reggina 35%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 36%, Reggina 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.41 PPG, Reggina 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.