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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pisa and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa and Sudtirol finished level at 3-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.60 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 26%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.57 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights