🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Pisa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Pisa welcome Sudtirol to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Pisa — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sudtirol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.80 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pisa have won 2, Sudtirol 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Pisa in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 62% versus Sudtirol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | Sudtirol 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.60 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.132 / defence 0.916 | Sudtirol attack 1.113 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 74 Pisa games / 74 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 26%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 3.85. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights