Pisa vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Pisa (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pisa face Sampdoria.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Sampdoria travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pisa's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season.

Sampdoria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On current form, Pisa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Pisa have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Sampdoria have managed just 0 wins.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.

The historical record gives Pisa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Pisa trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Sampdoria trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 46% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Sampdoria 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 2.00 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.169 / defence 1.388 | Sampdoria attack 0.767 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Pisa games / 48 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 52% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 24%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Sampdoria 4.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.

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