Pisa 3-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Mantova meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mantova's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mantova's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Pisa edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Pisa 3–2 Mantova — a Pisa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Mantova half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Mantova 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Mantova 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 2.11 xG and Mantova 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.248 / defence 0.919 | Mantova attack 1.026 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.089. Mantova's defence rating of 1.402 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 67 games and Mantova's last 29.
Result probabilities: Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.65 | Draw 4.30 | Mantova 6.26. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Mantova's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 50% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Pisa 2.11 / Mantova 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.248 / def 0.919 | Mantova attack 1.026 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Pisa (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Mantova xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Mantova kick off?
Pisa vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Mantova?
Pisa 3 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Pisa vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Mantova part of?
Pisa vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 61% chance of winning, Mantova a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pisa and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pisa's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.03x) against Pisa's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 67 games and Mantova's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.30
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.14
1.03
Mantova xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
51.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Pisa and 1.03 for Mantova, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 16W 7D 6L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 6W 12D 11L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.36 PPG from their last 14 home games (10W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 6D 7L from their last 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
Pisa (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Pisa vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Mantova in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Mantova have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Mantova away?
Pisa's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.36 PPG; Mantova away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Mantova?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pisa and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Mantova 2-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Mantova?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 57%, Mantova 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Pisa and 57% for Mantova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Mantova matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pisa's games and 71% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pisa's matches and 57% of Mantova's.
Do Pisa and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Pisa's recent matches and 79% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Mantova 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.11 xG and Mantova 1.03 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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