Pisa vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Pisa welcome Benevento to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.60 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Pisa have won 3, Benevento 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Pisa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Benevento in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 64% versus Benevento 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 73% | Benevento 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.53 xG and Benevento 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.179 / defence 1.443 | Benevento attack 0.855 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 11 Pisa games / 11 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 28% | Benevento 35%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 70% | Benevento 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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