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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pescara and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.87 / defence 1.37 against Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 30% | Draw 38% | Venezia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 100%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights