🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pescara take on Venezia.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia plays host to Pescara versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Venezia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Pescara have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.868 / defence 1.366 | Venezia attack 0.735 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.051. Data: 2 Pescara games / 2 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Pescara 30% | Draw 38% | Venezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Venezia 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights