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Pescara and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 36, as Pescara and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.57 xG and Juve Stabia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 44% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 28%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 69%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights