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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Pescara 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Pescara 1-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 0.90 xG and Frosinone 1.72 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.80, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 18% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 56%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 60%, Frosinone 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights