Pescara 1-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pescara host Frosinone at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Pescara — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Frosinone are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Pescara in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pescara 73% versus Frosinone 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 60% | Frosinone 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 0.90 xG and Frosinone 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.846 / defence 1.290 | Frosinone attack 1.268 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.054. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Pescara games / 53 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 18% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 56%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pescara 62% | Frosinone 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 18% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Pescara 0.90 / Frosinone 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.846 / def 1.290 | Frosinone attack 1.268 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Frosinone xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Frosinone kick off?
Pescara vs Frosinone kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Frosinone?
Pescara 1 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Pescara vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Frosinone part of?
Pescara vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 18% chance of winning, Frosinone a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pescara and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Frosinone in?
Pescara (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pescara's attack rating (0.85) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
18%
5.41
26%
3.87
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.63
1.72
Frosinone xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
30.32
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pescara and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Pescara and 1.72 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Pescara have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 7D 7L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 9W 4D 2L from 15 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pescara have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pescara are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.93 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 0.88 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Pescara or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Frosinone in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Frosinone 2-2 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 62%, Frosinone 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pescara) and 38% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Pescara's recent matches and 38% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pescara vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pescara's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Frosinone tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Pescara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Pescara 1-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 0.90 xG and Frosinone 1.72 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.80, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 18% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 56%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 60%, Frosinone 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.