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Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.46 xG and Venezia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Venezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 49% | Draw 34% | Venezia 17%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights