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Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.83 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palermo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 53%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.39 PPG, Sudtirol 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights