🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Palermo at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Spezia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Palermo welcome Spezia to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Palermo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Palermo have won 2, Spezia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Palermo winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Palermo trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Spezia trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Spezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Spezia 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.64 xG and Spezia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.166 / defence 0.745 | Spezia attack 1.006 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.054. Palermo's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Palermo games / 57 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 57% | Draw 25% | Spezia 17%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights