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Palermo cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Sassuolo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Sassuolo 5-3 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.24 xG and Sassuolo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Sassuolo attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 34% | Draw 30% | Sassuolo 36%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 51%, Sassuolo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Sassuolo 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights