Palermo vs Sampdoria – Match Report

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Palermo and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.22 xG and Sampdoria 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.79 / defence 0.90 against Sampdoria attack 1.29 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 34% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.38 PPG, Sampdoria 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights