Palermo 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Palermo (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Palermo against 1.40 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Palermo 1W, Sampdoria 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Sampdoria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Sampdoria 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.22 xG and Sampdoria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.794 / defence 0.901 | Sampdoria attack 1.286 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.053. Palermo's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sampdoria have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Palermo games / 51 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Sampdoria 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 30% | Sampdoria 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Palermo 1.22 / Sampdoria 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.794 / def 0.901 | Sampdoria attack 1.286 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sampdoria kick off?
Palermo vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sampdoria?
Palermo 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Palermo vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sampdoria part of?
Palermo vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 34% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palermo and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Palermo and Sampdoria in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palermo's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.29x) against Palermo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.10
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Sampdoria xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Palermo and 1.22 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 15D 18L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.38 PPG from 52 outings (20W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Palermo against 1.38 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.33 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 19W 15D 18L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.38 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Palermo
4
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sampdoria?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Palermo 3-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sampdoria?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 46%, Sampdoria 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palermo) and 58% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Palermo's games and 65% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Palermo's matches and 58% of Sampdoria's.
Do Palermo and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.22 xG and Sampdoria 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.79 / defence 0.90 against Sampdoria attack 1.29 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 34% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.38 PPG, Sampdoria 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.