Palermo 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palermo face Sampdoria.

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Analysis

Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Form

Palermo (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Palermo's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sampdoria's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sampdoria's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Palermo against 1.40 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Palermo, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Palermo 2–0 Sampdoria — a Palermo win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Sampdoria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Sampdoria 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palermo surrender their half-time lead 48% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sampdoria surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Palermo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.22 xG and Sampdoria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.794 / defence 0.901 | Sampdoria attack 1.286 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.053. Palermo's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palermo's projected output up. Sampdoria have an above-average attack rating of 1.286, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Data: built from Palermo's last 51 games and Sampdoria's last 51.

Result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.96 | Draw 3.10 | Sampdoria 2.94. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Palermo 34% and Sampdoria 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palermo 30% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games).

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