Cesena 1-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cesena at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cesena welcome Reggiana to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 games at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Cesena have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 62% versus Reggiana 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 54% | Reggiana 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.62 xG and Reggiana 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.324 / defence 1.318 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.061. Cesena carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Cesena games / 51 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 57% | Reggiana 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Cesena 1.62 / Reggiana 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.324 / def 1.318 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Cesena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Reggiana xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Reggiana kick off?
Cesena vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Reggiana?
Cesena 1 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Cesena vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Reggiana part of?
Cesena vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cesena and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Reggiana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Reggiana in?
Cesena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cesena vs Reggiana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cesena's attack at 1.32x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Reggiana xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cesena and 1.25 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cesena come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 3D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cesena's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Reggiana in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Reggiana away?
Cesena's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.17 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Cesena or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Reggiana in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cesena's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Reggiana 1-2 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Reggiana?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 50%, Reggiana 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cesena) and 33% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Reggiana in 33%; Reggiana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cesena's recent matches and 33% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cesena's recent games and 33% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Reggiana tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 14, as Cesena and Reggiana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.62 xG and Reggiana 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.32 / defence 1.32 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 54%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.