🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Reggiana 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.59 xG and Reggiana 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Reggiana attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 44% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 27%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 47%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.37 PPG, Reggiana 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights