Palermo vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palermo at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Modena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 2.40 PPG, Modena 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palermo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palermo have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Modena have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palermo and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Modena in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 48% versus Modena 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.54 xG and Modena 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.351 / defence 0.893 | Modena attack 1.134 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Palermo games / 49 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 28% | Modena 29%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 28% | Modena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Palermo 1.54 / Modena 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.351 / def 0.893 | Modena attack 1.134 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Palermo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Modena xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Modena kick off?
Palermo vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Modena part of?
Palermo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 42% chance of winning, Modena a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Palermo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
Record (8 meetings): Palermo 5W | Draws 3 | Modena 0W.
What form are Palermo and Modena in?
Palermo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.35) and Modena's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.54
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
Modena xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Palermo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Palermo and 1.25 for Modena, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 28W 15D 7L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 22W 12D 16L from 50 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Modena.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 2.54 PPG from 24 outings (19W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Modena have gone 9W 7D 8L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.38 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Modena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 28W 15D 7L in their last 50 games (1.98 PPG), while Modena have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Modena away?
Palermo's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.54 PPG; Modena away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Palermo or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Modena in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Modena specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Modena?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 38%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palermo) and 42% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Modena in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palermo's recent games and 42% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Modena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Modena in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →