Palermo 2-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Modena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Modena — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palermo have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Modena have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palermo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 53% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.11 xG and Modena 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.884 / defence 0.869 | Modena attack 1.004 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Data: 58 Palermo games / 58 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 38% | Draw 35% | Modena 27%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Palermo dominate the H2H record, yet Modena are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 38% | Draw 35% | Modena 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Palermo 1.11 / Modena 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.884 / def 0.869 | Modena attack 1.004 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Modena xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Modena kick off?
Palermo vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Modena?
Palermo 2 - 0 Modena.
Where is Palermo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Modena part of?
Palermo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 38% chance of winning, Modena a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Palermo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 4W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Palermo and Modena in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.88) and Modena's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.88
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.02
0.91
Modena xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Palermo and 0.91 for Modena, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 16D 22L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 15W 27D 16L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.31 PPG, Modena on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
On the road, Modena have gone 5W 17D 7L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.14 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Modena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 27D 16L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Modena away?
Palermo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.38 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Modena specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Modena?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 48%, Modena 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Palermo) and 45% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 28% of games; Modena in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Palermo's games and 66% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Palermo's recent games and 45% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Modena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Modena in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.11 xG and Modena 0.91 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Modena attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 38% | Draw 35% | Modena 27%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Modena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.31 PPG, Modena 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.