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Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Frosinone.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Frosinone 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.42 xG and Frosinone 1.13 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Frosinone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Frosinone attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 42% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 29%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 54%, Frosinone 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.35 PPG, Frosinone 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights