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Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Empoli 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Empoli 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.62 xG and Empoli 0.58 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.11 / defence 0.71 against Empoli attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights