Palermo 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Brescia (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 2 for Brescia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Brescia — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 53% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 52% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.17 xG and Brescia 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.983 / defence 0.941 | Brescia attack 0.883 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.089. Data: 65 Palermo games / 65 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 33% | Brescia 27%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Brescia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 33% | Brescia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Palermo 1.17 / Brescia 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.983 / def 0.941 | Brescia attack 0.883 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Palermo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Brescia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Brescia kick off?
Palermo vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Brescia?
Palermo 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Palermo vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Brescia part of?
Palermo vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 40% chance of winning, Brescia a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palermo and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Brescia?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 2 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Palermo and Brescia in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Brescia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palermo's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.88x) against Palermo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.01
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.07
0.90
Brescia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Palermo and 0.90 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 24W 18D 24L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 18W 27D 21L from 66 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Palermo against 1.23 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (13W 8D 12L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 8W 12D 13L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.17 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Brescia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 games (1.36 PPG), while Brescia have gone 18W 27D 21L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Brescia away?
Palermo's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.42 PPG; Brescia away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Palermo
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Palermo 1-0 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 48%, Brescia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Palermo) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Palermo's recent matches and 58% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Palermo's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Brescia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Brescia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.17 xG and Brescia 0.90 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 40% | Draw 33% | Brescia 27%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 52%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Brescia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.