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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.88 xG and Bari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Bari attack 0.90 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 31% | Draw 37% | Bari 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Bari 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Bari 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights