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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Avellino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Avellino 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 2.18 xG and Avellino 0.77 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.28 / defence 0.86 against Avellino attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 68% | Draw 21% | Avellino 11%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Avellino 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Avellino's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights