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Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Virtus Entella 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Virtus Entella 2-1 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.02 xG and Virtus Entella 1.10 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Padova beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Virtus Entella attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 29% | Draw 38% | Virtus Entella 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Padova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 33%, Virtus Entella 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Virtus Entella arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Padova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Padova scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Virtus Entella shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights