Padova 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Padova have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 1W 2D 1L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Padova register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Sudtirol in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 60% and Sudtirol 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 50% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.923 / defence 1.272 | Sudtirol attack 0.909 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.143. Data: 10 Padova games / 48 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Padova at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Padova 75% | Sudtirol 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Padova 1.37 / Sudtirol 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.923 / def 1.272 | Sudtirol attack 0.909 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Padova (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Sudtirol kick off?
Padova vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Sudtirol?
Padova 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Padova vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Sudtirol part of?
Padova vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 34% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Padova and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Sudtirol in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.91x) against Padova's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
34%
2.90
33%
3.01
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Padova xG
Total xG
2.69
1.32
Sudtirol xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Padova and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Padova and 1.32 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Padova have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 3W 4D 3L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Padova against 1.00 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Padova have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Sudtirol away?
Padova's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.25 PPG; Sudtirol away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Padova or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sudtirol 3-0 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Padova, 75% for Sudtirol — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Padova and 50% for Sudtirol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Padova's games and 75% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Padova's matches and 50% of Sudtirol's.
Do Padova and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Sudtirol attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 32%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 50%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.30 PPG, Sudtirol 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.